Thursday, March 30, 2017

On the NHL Scoring System - Part III

Part I
Part II


Once again, driven by idea that if you want to encourage goal scoring, you need to reward the goal scoring in standings directly, not indirectly through winning. Then, based on the idea of a fellow hockey fan and blogger, a new suggestion was born in my mind.

Not so long ago I was involved in another discussion on the subject on Twitter, where an interesting alternative, 2-1-0-0 was described. The idea is that you still get two points for a win in regulation, just one point for a win in OT, but nothing if you lose, and, the key, both teams get nothing if the game is tied at the end of regulation (shootouts are abolished). This is a very sharp idea, but for me something felt very wrong, and then it crystallized:

It's not fair to reward a hard fought 5-5 tie with zero points, just like a lazy-skated 1-1. We still want to encourage goal scoring, and the simple 2-1-0-0 just unbalances the game. And so it dawned on me. We should reward goals with extra standings points!

The formula that first came to mind, and which seemed fair: give each goal a 0.1 point in the standings, while the win-scoring system shall be 2-1-0-0. If you or your database have an aversion against decimals, assign 20 points for a win, 10 points for OT loss, and 1 extra point for each goal scored. This will encourage goal scoring in any situation, and for both sides, including the games that go into garbage time pretty quickly. So, a 7-2 win will give the winner 2.7 points, and the loser 0.2 points. A 2-0 win will give the winner 2.2 points, the loser 0. A 4-3 OT win will give the winner 1.4 points, the loser 0.3 points. A 5-5 OT tie will give each side 0.5 points.

Wait, there's a caveat.

Imagine a situation where a team needs just 0.1 point to pass another one in the standings for the playoff spot. They are playing an opponent whose number of points in the standings does not have any effect on them. In such a situation, the team would play without a goaltender at all, because they don't care how much they lose, they just need that goal. Now, this is not really hockey, so to prevent this kind of play a restriction needs to be introduced:

Any goal scored without a goaltender on the ice, when not on a delayed penalty, and when trailing by more than two goals shall not yield any standings points.

Here is an example what the today's standings would look like under the suggested system:

Team                           W  OW T  L  GF  GA  P
Boston Bruins                  34 04 04 34 216 201 93.6
Montreal Canadiens             31 09 05 31 205 186 91.5
Ottawa Senators                32 04 08 31 191 191 87.1
--------------------------------------------------------
Washington Capitals            41 08 07 20 246 165 114.6
Columbus Blue Jackets          38 09 04 24 233 170 108.3
Pittsburgh Penguins            37 06 08 25 256 211 105.6
--------------------------------------------------------
New York Rangers               38 05 06 28 242 203 105.2
Toronto Maple Leafs            29 06 09 31 229 213 86.9
--------------------------------------------------------
New York Islanders             28 05 06 36 217 224 82.7
Tampa Bay Lightning            27 06 07 35 206 207 80.6
Carolina Hurricanes            28 04 07 36 198 208 79.8
Buffalo Sabres                 24 06 08 39 191 215 73.1
Philadelphia Flyers            22 07 11 36 193 218 70.3
Florida Panthers               21 07 11 37 192 210 68.2
New Jersey Devils              18 06 06 46 171 221 59.1
Detroit Red Wings              16 07 08 45 181 224 57.1
--------------------------------------------------------
Chicago Blackhawks             36 09 05 27 230 197 104.0
Minnesota Wild                 37 04 05 30 241 193 102.1
St. Louis Blues                35 06 02 33 213 200 97.3
--------------------------------------------------------
San Jose Sharks                35 06 03 32 204 185 96.4
Anaheim Ducks                  37 02 06 31 200 183 96.0
Edmonton Oilers                33 05 09 29 221 191 93.1
--------------------------------------------------------
Nashville Predators            33 04 06 33 224 206 92.4
Calgary Flames                 30 09 06 32 208 206 89.8
--------------------------------------------------------
Winnipeg Jets                  29 03 04 41 226 243 83.6
Dallas Stars                   27 04 02 43 207 240 78.7
Los Angeles Kings              23 11 06 36 183 185 75.3
Vancouver Canucks              19 07 06 44 169 221 61.9
Arizona Coyotes                17 04 08 48 176 245 55.6
Colorado Avalanche             14 06 01 55 150 257 49.0

Naturally, they would not be the same standings if the system were indeed implemented, but why not to take a look. And once again, try it in the AHL first, it won't hurt anyone.

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