On schedule breaks - some crosstables

I took a look at how the teams performed one against another depending on the break length. All lengths longer than five were truncated to five, and the back-to-backs are designated as 0-length.

Here's the crosstable for the 2015 season:

#days	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	X	84-90-28	35-38-8	7-6-1	3-7-0	4-2-0
1	118-65-19	X	118-82-27	28-18-9	6-4-1	7-5-0
2	46-29-6	109-95-23	X	15-11-3	5-1-0	2-0-0
3	7-3-4	27-23-5	14-11-4	X	5-4-0	0-1-0
4	7-3-0	5-3-3	1-4-1	4-4-1	X	2-0-0
5	2-2-2	5-4-3	0-2-0	1-0-0	0-2-0	X

And here's the one for the ongoing, 2016 season, in the midst of bye weeks:

#days	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	X	59-48-23	21-23-7	7-3-3	3-0-0	6-3-2
1	71-48-11	X	61-64-21	16-7-3	3-4-0	11-4-0
2	30-13-8	85-44-17	X	5-3-5	0-0-0	1-1-0
3	6-5-2	10-12-4	8-4-1	X	3-1-0	0-0-0
4	0-2-1	4-1-2	0-0-0	1-1-2	X	2-0-0
5	5-5-1	4-9-2	1-0-1	0-0-0	0-2-0	X

It's obvious that the bye weeks are no good for the teams, and NHL should convince the NHLPA to rescind it for 2017/18.

Just for fun, here's the aggregate since 2005, when the ties were abolished:

#days	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	X	1013-1030-285	352-380-104	117-104-26	37-34-10	45-34-11
1	1315-760-253	X	1128-917-284	305-231-67	119-86-24	61-42-7
2	484-267-85	1201-852-276	X	149-103-34	44-24-8	15-10-2
3	130-87-30	298-232-73	137-114-35	X	20-19-1	3-3-1
4	44-32-5	110-87-32	32-34-10	20-9-11	X	6-4-1
5	45-30-15	49-44-17	12-13-2	4-2-1	5-6-0	X

Soon to become part of the website!

Another rule change suggestion

Better less, but better

V.I. Lenin

I've got another rule change suggestion, this one even simpler:

Allow teams to decline penalty shot awards in favor of a regular power-play.

I think it adds more tactical variety to the game and discourages penalties on breakaways that are worse in penalty shooting.

As a side matter, I think: a player who is charged with the offense after which the penalty shot is awarded should still be added a minor penalty (2 minutes) in the statistics.

On Leads Changes and Swings

Wild thing, you make my heart sing

You make everything groovy, wild thing

Also inspired by Twitter, and because I can, I decided to gather statistics on games with

• most lead changes^*
• most lead swings^**

Here, for the 2016/17 season:

By most lead swings:

AWAY    HOME   Date        Sco LC LS

CHI  vs DAL  on 2017/02/04: 5-3 7 3

CBJ  vs OTT  on 2017/01/22: 7-6 11 3

PHI  vs STL  on 2016/12/28: 3-6 7 3

MTL  vs PIT  on 2016/12/31: 3-4 7 3

CHI  vs NYI  on 2016/12/15: 5-4 7 3

ARI  vs PHI  on 2016/10/27: 5-4 9 3

with 60 games at 2 lead swings. Dallas leads the way with 8 games with at least two swings, and Carolina, Chicago, NY Islanders and Winnpeg follow with 7 each.

By most lead changes:

AWAY    HOME   Date        Sco LC LS

CBJ  vs OTT  on 2017/01/22: 7-6 11 3

TOR  vs WSH  on 2017/01/03: 5-6  9 2

TOR  vs NYI  on 2017/02/06: 5-6  9 2

NYI  vs DET  on 2017/02/03: 4-5  9 1

CHI  vs COL  on 2017/01/17: 6-4  9 2

CAR  vs NYI  on 2017/02/04: 5-4  9 2

CHI  vs STL  on 2016/12/17: 6-4  9 1

BUF  vs OTT  on 2016/11/29: 5-4  9 1

ARI  vs PHI  on 2016/10/27: 5-4  9 3

with 31 game with at least 7 lead changes. Here we've got Carolina, Chicago and NY Islanders at the lead with at least 6 games with 7 or more lead changes.

And what do we get historically?

The wildest games, regular season, by lead swings:

AWAY    HOME   Date         Sco LC LS

PHI  vs BOS  on 2011/01/13: 5-7  11 5

COL  vs CGY  on 1991/02/23: 8-10 11 5

ARI  vs CGY  on 1991/01/15: 5-7  11 5

PHI  vs COL  on 1988/11/19: 5-6  11 5

with 30 games at 4 lead swings.

The wildest games, regular season, by lead changes:

AWAY    HOME   Date        Sco LC LS

DET  vs SJS  on 2005/11/26: 7-6 13 4

MTL  vs COL  on 2002/12/06: 6-7 13 2

COL  vs SJS  on 1997/04/04: 6-7 13 2

ARI  vs PHI  on 1990/01/25: 6-8 13 1

TOR  vs PIT  on 1989/10/25: 8-6 13 3

COL  vs WSH  on 1997/11/18: 6-6 12 3

PIT  vs NJD  on 1993/04/14: 6-6 12 1

BUF  vs CAR  on 1991/12/07: 6-6 12 4

CAR  vs TOR  on 1990/02/14: 6-6 12 2

VAN  vs TOR  on 1988/01/04: 7-7 12 3

with 65 games at 11 lead changes (even numbers can only occur in the ties era).

The wildest games, playoffs, by lead swings:

AWAY    HOME   Date        Sco LC LS

STL  vs DAL  on 1999/05/08: 4-5 9 4

MTL  vs COL  on 1993/04/26: 5-4 9 4

EDM  vs LAK  on 1992/04/20: 5-8 9 4

with 33 games at 3 lead swings.

The wildest games, playoffs, by lead changes:

AWAY    HOME   Date        Sco LC LS

BUF  vs OTT  on 2006/05/05: 7-6 13 2

PHI  vs CHI  on 2010/05/29: 5-6 11 3

COL  vs SJS  on 2010/04/16: 5-6 11 1

PHI  vs WSH  on 1989/04/11: 8-5 11 3

with 42 games at 9 lead changes (only odd numbers can occur)

The data is presented since the year 1987 - the earliest boxscores from the NHL.com

Now this one is going to make it into the website, I just haven't decided in which form.

^*   Lead swing is defined as when a team takes the lead after the other team had it. 

^** Lead change is defined as when a team loses the lead, even if only temporarily to a tied score.

On goalposts statistics

Why does the cat lick his balls?

Because it can.

Recently I saw a request on a stats of goal posts / crossbars hit per game. While I do have that statistic per player, I haven't one for games, so - since I can - why shouldn't I produce one?

About half an hour of Perl-ing created the following summary:

Irons altogether, top:
AWAY    HOME                P C T

OTT  vs BUF  on 2011/12/31: 8 0 8

VAN  vs FLA  on 2010/02/11: 7 0 7

WPG  vs FLA  on 2009/12/05: 6 1 7

TOR  vs BUF  on 2007/10/15: 6 1 7

TBL  vs FLA  on 2006/04/01: 6 1 7

PHI  vs PIT  on 2006/03/12: 7 0 7

COL  vs NYI  on 2005/12/17: 7 0 7

NSH  vs DAL  on 2016/03/29: 4 2 6

PIT  vs NSH  on 2014/03/04: 5 1 6

NYI  vs TBL  on 2014/01/16: 3 3 6

DAL  vs VAN  on 2013/02/15: 5 1 6

STL  vs CAR  on 2012/03/15: 5 1 6

WPG  vs MTL  on 2011/01/02: 6 0 6

OTT  vs VAN  on 2011/02/07: 6 0 6

MTL  vs CAR  on 2011/11/23: 6 0 6

LAK  vs DAL  on 2010/03/12: 4 2 6

NJD  vs TBL  on 2009/10/08: 6 0 6

LAK  vs DAL  on 2009/10/19: 5 1 6

DAL  vs CBJ  on 2009/01/31: 5 1 6

COL  vs CHI  on 2009/11/11: 6 0 6

PIT  vs WPG  on 2008/01/30: 5 1 6

NYR  vs NJD  on 2008/04/09: 4 2 6

STL  vs ARI  on 2007/01/15: 5 1 6

followed by 109 games with 5 irons hit.

Crossbars, top:

AWAY    HOME                P C T
CGY  vs CBJ  on 2008/11/08: 1 4 5

NYR  vs FLA  on 2007/11/23: 0 4 4

PHI  vs FLA  on 2006/12/27: 1 4 5

BUF  vs DAL  on 2017/01/26: 1 3 4

EDM  vs DAL  on 2016/01/21: 2 3 5

TOR  vs STL  on 2015/01/17: 1 3 4

CHI  vs ANA  on 2015/05/19: 1 3 4

BOS  vs VAN  on 2015/02/13: 1 3 4

NYI  vs TBL  on 2014/01/16: 3 3 6

CHI  vs ANA  on 2008/01/04: 2 3 5

CAR  vs FLA  on 2007/11/12: 1 3 4

followed by 50 games with 2 crossbars hit.

The data is extracted from the PBP files of NHL.com, from the year 2005 on.

However I consider this a one-time effort and will not add this to the website itself.

On Streaks and Breaks

3 articles in two days... What's gotten into me.

So after remembering the Botwinnik's quote, and after publishing the stats how the teams actually play after different breaks, a new idea came to me - check whether the teams on streaks are affected positively or negatively by breaks.

For the sake of the analysis, I assumed the following:

• A break is a period of three days at least between games.
• A streak is a sequence of at least three wins in a row, or at least seven points in four games.

So we check for the last thirty years (as far as NHL.com would let us in) if the streaking team was able to keep the streak alive, or whether the streak was broken:

SEASON	ALIVE	BROKEN
1987/1988	5	11
1988/1989	12	7
1989/1990	8	14
1990/1991	13	11
1991/1992	17	13
1992/1993	20	16
1993/1994	19	20
1994/1995	2	7
1995/1996	15	11
1996/1997	15	11
1997/1998	12	20
1998/1999	12	9
1999/2000	18	12
2000/2001	21	11
2001/2002	17	6
2002/2003	13	10
2003/2004	12	14
2005/2006	31	15
2006/2007	16	16
2007/2008	23	24
2008/2009	15	20
2009/2010	14	17
2010/2011	19	11
2011/2012	22	11
2012/2013	6	3
2013/2014	15	15
2014/2015	16	16
2015/2016	16	14
2016/2017	8	11
TOTAL	432	376

Actually, it looks like the streaks weren't affected by the break either way. 53.4% of the times the streak continued, 46.6% of the time it went dead. There is a very large discrepancy between the seasons, although I'd attribute it to lesser parity between the teams overall in these years. For the last 5 years, the probability for the streak to stay alive has been 50.8% (61 cases of extended streaks out of 120).

Now, what would change, if we define a break a little bit longer, by a single day:

SEASON	ALIVE	BROKEN
1987/1988	2	2
1988/1989	4	1
1989/1990	3	1
1990/1991	4	4
1991/1992	7	8
1992/1993	8	2
1993/1994	7	7
1994/1995	1	1
1995/1996	6	7
1996/1997	6	2
1997/1998	5	5
1998/1999	6	2
1999/2000	9	3
2000/2001	7	4
2001/2002	6	4
2002/2003	5	1
2003/2004	3	6
2005/2006	16	4
2006/2007	8	5
2007/2008	10	6
2008/2009	8	8
2009/2010	6	6
2010/2011	9	3
2011/2012	8	4
2012/2013	2	1
2013/2014	3	9
2014/2015	5	9
2015/2016	7	6
2016/2017	3	8
TOTAL	174	129

The changes are rather interesting. Now, overall, the chances of streak to continue are up to 57.4%, and only in 42.6% of the cases it came to a stop. But in the last five years - since the last lockout - and with the schedule changes so that there are at least two games between every team (increasing travel), the ratio drops from 50.8% to the humble 37.7% (20 out of 53!)

Extending the breaks to five days provides too little data to draw any conclusions.

So I am inclined to agree with Dr. Botwinnik, that extended breaks of more than three days throw teams off their pace and should be reduced to minimum. Three days are borderline alright.

A rule change suggestion

There's no irreplaceable people.

I.V. Stalin

Rushing this one up, because this idea already came to my mind before, but I forgot about it. The age is taking its toll.

Anyways. Everyone is talking these days about rule changes. I've already expressed a few thoughts on the scoring systems, but I am not original there. Now, however, I want to make a suggestion I haven't seen mentioned yet.

Allow soccer (baseball, too)-like substitutions in hockey. Allow the coaches to replace players in the original lineup at the start of the game with one of the "healthy scratches", as submitted in the roster sheet, like the one Peter DeBoer recently messed up in the game against Edmonton.

The substitution goes ONE-WAY. That means that the player that was substituted cannot return to the game. The substitutions may occur:

• During the intermissions
• During the commercial breaks
• During a time-out

First and foremost this will allow teams to handle early injuries much better. Your D-man got injured at the 7:04 mark of the 1st period? Around 10:00 there will be a commercial break, you can substitute him with one of the scratches!

Second, it may allow coaches to send stronger messages to players they deem slacking. Rather than shorten the roster by benching that guy, you can send an eager healthy scratch in. Of course, then the "slacking" player is benched for the whole remainder of the game.

Third (oh, I did military service, so I have a natural obsession of providing three reasons for each thing), it may give the coaches some extra flexibility if a designated roster player gets slightly injured in the warm-ups. Then a scratch takes his place as usual, but if the original player is fixed by the 1st intermission, he can substitute the starting scratch.

The substitutes will have to come from the "scratch" list with the exception of the emergency goaltending contracts.

Oh, and I am sure the NHL website will make a mess out of it in their game reports.