Thursday, March 2, 2017

On schedule - played and remaining

Here I would like to present visualization of the schedule of the teams, played and remaining. This is actually a graphic representation of the Buchholz/Sonneborn and teams Elo tables I present on the website.

First, let's start with the played games and points.


 Naturally, most of the squares above the X-diagonal indicate more points than the ones below; however we can see interesting anomalies, such as BUF-OTT, TOR-BOS, ARI-SJS, WPG-CHI and probably the most intriguing: NYR - WSH (expected 1st round meeting)

Another unusual thing is that the Sharks are only playing Colorado twice this season rather than the regular 3-4 intraconference games.

Now let's take a look at the remaining games and the expected points.


We can see that STL may expect a big boost from having to play Colorado four(!) more times this season as well as Arizona three times and that Ottawa has two biggest season series mostly unresolved - against MTL and BOS. The expected points are being calculated based on teams Elo rating:

xPts = Ngames/(1 + 10(Eloopp-Eloteam)/400))

however for the sake of precision this number should've been scaled by 2 (since it produces an outcome between 0 and 1 (0.5 for a "tie") and also by the OT factor, i .e. the probability of a team getting an OT point, around 1.125. But for visualization purposes this does not matter.

There are also nice patters indicating travels through California and Western Canada. 

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